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The NBA Draft Lottery was conducted last night in Secaucus, New Jersey where the Chicago Bulls took their 1.7 % chance of winning the lottery and stole the first pick from the Miami Heat.
Much like last season’s draft, this year there are two players who are clearly above the rest of the class. Thus, it appears both the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat will each land a stud player, and thus add to the challenges for the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference.
If I’m the Chicago Bulls, I select Derrick Rose with the #1 overall pick. He’s a Chicago native and NBA Scouts can’t decide if he’s more Chris Paul or more Deron Williams. Any franchise (except Atlanta) would love to have either one of those guys, so even a hybrid would work wonders.
How they would pass on him I don’t know, but there are some indications out there that the Bulls are happy with Kirk Hinrich and would just like to add Beasley to their interior.
This probably leaves Miami with the best position in the draft. Much like last year with Seattle, when they got the “left overs” from whatever Portland didn’t want, it will be impossible for Pat Riley and company to screw this up. Basically you take whichever of Beasley or Rose is still on the board.
Adding Michael Beasley to a front court with Shawn Marion would look quite nice for Miami, while a backcourt of Derrick Rose and Dwayne Wade could possibly be the best in the league in year one.
Regardless, if both of these teams leap frog the Raptors next season I would not be shocked.
Perhaps Miami has a bigger mountain to climb, but the Bulls should be vastly improved next season. And after stealing our announcer, Chuck Swirsky, they are primed to pass Toronto.
As for the Raptors,
Unless the Raptors intend on making a trade, which is very possible, it appears that the Raptors will be selecting in the #17 position.
I took the liberty of having a look at draft history from 2002-2005 to see what teams normally get in the 16-18 range to get an idea of what might be landing in Toronto this summer.
2002:
16. Jiri Welsch
17. Juan Dixon
18.Curtis Borchandt
2003:
16. Troy Bell
17. Zarko Cabarakpa
18. David West
2004:
16. Kirk Snyder
17. Josh Smith
18. JR Smith
2005:
16. Joey Graham
17. Danny Granger
18. Gerald Green
I didn’t bother with the ‘06 and ‘07 drafts as I figured those classes deserved a bit more time before passing judgement.
So looking at those 12 players selected in those 4 drafts we have a total of
1 All Star Stud : David West
2 Potential All-Stars: Josh Smith, Danny Granger
2 Rotation Guys: Gerald Green, JR Smith
7 Busts and/or Deep Bench Players: Snyder, Graham, Bell, Cabarkapa, Welsch, Dixon, Borchandt
So, what can we learn from this?
Well the odds of the Raptors drafting a guy who could actually help the team in any significant manner in the future are a shade under 50%.
The odds of us “stealing” an All-Star type player are about 25%, which is a bit higher than I would have thought, but still low.
The take away message here is that, the draft probably won’t help the team much this year. Factor in our wonderful draft history (Graham over Granger, Arrujo over Iguodala, Bargnani over Roy) the odds of the Raptors drafting a good player are even more slim.
But with that in mind, let’s have a look at some players in the 15-20 range that the Raptors might end up selecting.
Greene is a steal if he slips this far. He has the potential to be a Shawn Marion-type combo forward in the pros. While his game is still raw, he has great length and athleticism and an emerging perimeter game. His size and speed would finally give the Raptors the true slashing SF they so desperately need.
The never ending search for a true Center could end with Speights. Unless the Raptors are able to obtain a Center before the draft this could be a real possibility although Speights is said to lack conditioning and drive.
I think Lopez is the player Toronto is most interested in. Lopez is drawing a lot of comparisons to Anderson Varejao. On a team that needs toughness and rebounding in the middle, he should be a great fit. He’s kind of the anti-Andrea Bargnani.
Another big man the Raptors could try and stuff in the middle. Long, athletic and skilled, he has huge upside and can fly up and down the court. But his thin frame and lack of position mean he’s a few years away from contributing.
If Colangelo is interested in continuing to throw mediocre white Euro guys on the floor Koufos could be his man (Koufos was born in Ohio, but holds a Greece passport as well). Apparently, he’s a very skilled big man who gets up and down the floor really well.
Some scouts compare him to a young Zydrunas Ilgauskas. He needs to get stronger, but apparently he’s got great upside for a pick this low in the draft.
Personally, after already drafting a big white guy with a weird name, who hailed from outside North America and played for a Division One School (Arrujo) I’m not ready to go down that road again.
If the Raptors are looking for a backup to the soon to be traded TJ Ford. Lawson could be the guy.
Whatever ends up happening, the days leading up to the draft should be interesting. It’s my opinion that the Raptors need an inside presence or a slashing SF over anything else. If Maggette is unavailable this summer the Raptors need to consider moving up a few spots to select Greene. Otherwise a selection of Lopez for the Center position wouldn’t be terrible in my opinion.
What do you guys think?
10 Comments
May 21, 2008 at 3:10 pm
If the Raptors get another white guy that can’t rebound and play defense and shoots a low percentage I will disown them.
Even though JaVale McGee needs to hit the gym I think he is the best bet for this draft. He is smart with the ball and has the ability to be an explosive rebounder, shot blocker and scorer.
May 21, 2008 at 9:25 pm
If Chris Douglas Roberts is available when the Raps get to draft and they do not take him we will be as boneheaded as the Leafs.
May 22, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Nice Blog Kurtis, the only guy i’d get outta here would be Green but i doubt he’ll slip that far. Picks 15-20 are all projects. Roberts i keep hearing his name but the skinny on him is he’s skinny http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/chrisdouglas-roberts.html. I say trade up in the draft. Go for picks 12 n 13, The Blazers don’t really need that pick 13 there team is solid but they need a proven PG. I hear they might be interested in only Calderon, a trade for Calderon n the 17 pick for Jack n Outlaw n the 12 pick might work. Jack being a nice back up pg n Bosh’s old teammate would be a nice fit. I’m Keeping my fingers crossed that they trade Ford to the Kings for beno udirth, garcia n miller n maybe even milk that pick, throw in rasho to even out the numbers n a joey graham the trade works out money wise, Miller is old n too expensive but he’s WAAAY better than Rasho. Garcia i can see him being a number 2 or 3 option on anyteam he’s just getting outplayed by Martin. A couple of rumors is that AI is on the market but i doubt that’ll happen and that the knicks are shopping jamaal crawford for tj, i’d only do that if they threw in Lee. What do you think?
May 22, 2008 at 2:38 pm
As a die hard Celtics fan… and someone who thought Gerald Green was a steal at 18 (some Mock Drafts had him going 3 to Portland)… I had to reply to his “rotation guy” label before I even finished reading the post.
Gerald isn’t just an electrifying dunker… he also has legit NBA 3 point range and can be a great offensive player. Unfortunately for Gerald, playing in the NBA forces you to know how to read, learn plays, and play defense. Gerald could do none of those things and after 2 years in Boston, was shipped to Minnesota. He still couldn’t get off the bench there and was shipped to his hometown Houston Rockets at the trade deadline. He lasted about 2 1/2 weeks there before he was cut and is officially out of the NBA at the age of 22.
Hmm… maybe he should have gone to college afterall… Put him in the “BUST” category… back to reading the post.
May 22, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Hey Dave,
You probably are correct in that I should be putting Gerald Green in the bust category, but I keep thinking some team will see his so called “potential” and pick him up this summer.
But man it doesn’t seem that long ago I was in New Orleans watching him finished second behind Howard in the dunk competition.
Check out the photos here if you like
http://flickr.com/photos/kurtisbillard/sets/72157603953668956/detail/?page=3
Jackson,
I’ve heard rumblings of a deal with the Knicks. Ford to New York for some combo of Jamal Crawford and another player. But if I’m the Raptors I don’t pursue that deal.
I’ve also heard Bargnani to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson, but again that’s just talk.
Some sort of deal with Sacramento to get that 12th pick is certainly possible.
But in the end I think the Raptors are going to try and fill the Center and SF position on draft day.
Rasho won’t last the full season in Toronto as his expiring contract will be moved in a trade I’m sure.
May 22, 2008 at 3:50 pm
[...] Check out my latest posting (as of May 21st) about the Raptors Draft Situation by CLICKING HERE [...]
May 22, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Thanks for the draft comparisons. Kinda encouraging, actually, though the downside (Cabarkapa, Green, Welsh) is frightening.
I don’t think BC will draft another big. He believes in Bargnani and Bosh as part of the Raptors core, so don’t you think he’d more likely address the guard position?
I like the look of Russell Westbrook, a good defensive PG, to complement Jose. BC might have to move up the draft to get him, though.
May 26, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Get robin lopez n trade tj n PLEASE KEEP JOSE!!
May 28, 2008 at 12:37 am
[...] – Rock The Blazer [...]
June 16, 2008 at 11:30 am
Dealing Jose is’nt smart at all it’s gonna be a another Marbury-Kidd mistake. Keep Jose trade TJ,Parker,Baston,Rasho for a star.Primoz has to be gone more time should be on Kris Hump and I would like getting Magloire I wanna see him finish his career in Toronto. GET JR SMITH and steven hunter for tj ford and _____ if iverson were to get dealt. I wanna see Mikael Peitrus Mike Miller Jose Smthi or JR smith in a raaps uni. Corey M is OLD!!!! i reather go after marion then. KEEP JOSE TRADE TJ. Jose overpowers tj in everything except for speed